World Bank Data Blog

The Atlas of Global Development 2026 shows the world at a critical moment: it is developing at its slowest pace

Tue, 05 May 2026 00:00:00 +0000

At the heart of development knowledge lies data — and the new Atlas of Global Development 2026 puts that data front and center. Through immersive data stories and state-of-the-art visualizations, the Atlas transforms data into something far more powerful: the insights and knowledge needed to improve people’s lives.

Global progress is slowing — but unevenly: The Atlas of Global Development 2026 tracks how countries are advancing across five key dimensions, revealing widening gaps in the pace of development. / Image: World Bank Group

The latest edition is structured around the World Bank Group’s five knowledge pillars — People, Prosperity, Planet, Infrastructure, and Digital. It covers 12 important development topics, from the role of education for better jobs, to access to safe water, and the unfinished but promising digital revolution.

Through the Atlas, the World Bank’s Development Data Group (DECDG) brings together expertise from across the institution and distills 121,249 data points from 107 data sets to create 95 visualizations and deliver critical insights. The Atlas is now hosted on Data360, the World Bank Group’s new data hub that brings together a range of development data in one place. By integrating the Atlas into Data360, users can move seamlessly from data to insights and discover how data can be turned into compelling evidence for development.

A critical moment for development

This edition of the Atlas asks a fundamental question: which countries are moving the fastest and which are losing ground? To answer it, the 2026 Atlas introduces a new framework that tracks how countries have advanced, each from its own individual starting point, across key dimensions.

The picture that emerges is sobering. After decades of meaningful gains, global progress today has reached its slowest pace in three quarters of a century. But the global average only tells part of the story. Embedded within it are countries that have defied the trend and accelerated far ahead. These success stories are not outliers to be dismissed — they are proof of what is possible. And the 2026 Atlas brings them to light so others can learn and adapt.

Here are five key highlights from this edition that illustrate how progress is unfolding:

Prosperity: Extreme poverty could rise in the coming years

The slow pace of global progress is perhaps most starkly reflected in poverty reduction. If countries continue on their current trajectories, global poverty will not just stall, but will begin to rise steadily. If current trends continue, in 43 countries with high levels of extreme poverty, the situation will remain unchanged or even worsen.

Yet, there is also hope. In 10 countries, mostly in Sub-Saharan Africa, extreme poverty could fall below 10 percent by 2050 if countries continue their current trajectories.

People: Women's economic participation is years away from parity, but can change fast

Women's full participation in the workforce could add trillions of dollars to global gross domestic product (GDP). Still, today, only 55 percent of women work, compared to 80 percent of men. At the current pace, the world is more than 350 years away from reaching parity.

But the Atlas also shows that with the right policies and conditions in place, change can come quickly. In Türkiye, women's labor force participation rose 8 percentage points in a single decade — from 34 percent in 2015 to nearly 42 percent in 2024. Based on historical experiences, this would typically take 36 years to achieve. That means Türkiye progressed four times faster than average. With supportive policies in place, other countries can accelerate progress too.

Infrastructure: Sub-Saharan Africa's persistent gap in electricity infrastructure

The number of people living without electricity has halved globally, falling from 1.3 billion in 2000 to 666 million in 2023. Although a remarkable achievement, this masks a deeply unequal picture.

Nearly 9 in 10 people worldwide who still lack access to electricity live in Sub-Saharan Africa, and just eight countries account for half the global total. While urban and rural access rates have converged in most regions, Sub-Saharan Africa remains a stark outlier: in 2023, only 1 in 3 rural residents had electricity access, compared to more than 4 in 5 urban residents.

Ethiopia offers one of the most compelling stories of rapid progress in the Atlas. Starting from near-zero rural electrification, the country has reached close to 50 percent of rural access today, and near universal access in urban areas. Ethiopia's trajectory shows what determined, sustained effort can accomplish, even when starting from extremely challenging circumstances.

Planet: Water quality, a hard problem to solve

2.1 billion people lacked access to safely managed drinking water in 2024, and among its three components (accessibility, availability, and quality), water quality has lagged furthest behind.

The scale of the challenge is stark when considering the pace of progress required. Based on historical experiences, expanding water accessibility from 40 to 75 % of a country’s population typically takes 33 years. Achieving the same scale of progress in water quality, ensuring water is safe, as well as physically accessible, takes three times as long. Progress is possible, but countries must treat water quality as a distinct and urgent priority, not an afterthought to infrastructure expansion.

Digital: The benefits of the internet are not shared equally

Although Internet access has steadily expanded over the past two decades, 2.2 billion people remain unconnected. And for many who are online, the low quality of their connection limits what the Internet can offer. Internet speed is critical for accessing education, healthcare, and economic opportunities. But while some countries enjoy broadband speeds that support a wide range of activities, others still rely on slow connections, that constrain the benefits people can fully realize online.

Who is the Atlas for?

The Atlas is designed as a public resource for decision-makers, the development community, academics, journalists, and anyone who cares about how the world is changing. Whether you are a decision maker tracking economic trends, a researcher exploring inequality, a journalist looking for the story behind the numbers, or simply a curious reader — the 2026 Atlas has something for you.

Want to know more about which countries are making progress on poverty and inequality? Are we preparing children for the jobs of the future? Is the digital revolution leaving anyone behind? Read the stories, dive into the data, and explore the interactive visuals — visit the Atlas here.

Understanding country income: World Bank Group income classifications for FY26 (July 1, 2025–June, 2026)

Eric Metreau, Kathryn Elizabeth Young, Shwetha Grace Eapen — Tue, 01 Jul 2025 00:00:00 +0000

Every year, the World Bank Group classifies the world’s economies ^[1] into four income groups: low, lower-middle, upper-middle, and high. These classifications, updated each year on July 1, are based on the previous year’s Gross National Income (GNI) per capita, expressed in U.S. dollars ^[2] using the Atlas method.

The Importance of Income Classification

A country’s income classification not only reflects its level of development, but it also has the potential to influence its development trajectory. It affects eligibility for official development assistance and concessional financing.

Evolution of Income Classification

Since the late 1980s, the classification of countries into income categories has transformed. The number of low-income countries has steadily declined, while the number of high-income countries has increased.

This shift reflects broader global economic developments, including sustained growth in many developing countries, greater integration into the global economy, and the effects of policy reforms and international organizations’ support. In 1987, 30% of reporting countries were classified as low-income and 25% as high-income countries. By 2024, these ratios shifted to 12% low-income and 40% high-income.

Regional Progression

The shifts in income classification vary significantly across regions:

East Asia & Pacific: In 1987, 26% of countries were low-income; by 2024, only 3% remained in this category.
Europe & Central Asia: No low-income countries in both 1987 and 2024, with a slight decrease in high-income countries from 71% to 69%.
Latin America & the Caribbean: Low-income countries reduced from 2 in 1987 to 0 in 2024, while high-income countries increased from 9% to 46%.
Middle East & North Africa^[3]: Low-income countries increased from 2 to 3, with high-income countries rising to 35%.
South Asia: All countries moved from low-income in 1987 to lower-middle- and upper-middle-income by 2024.
Sub-Saharan Africa: Low-income countries decreased from 75% to 45%, with one country reaching high-income status.

These changing compositions are depicted visually in the diagram below, which shows country classifications by region and over time since 1987.

Classification Changes for FY2026

The updated country income classifications for FY26, based on the Atlas GNI per capita of 2024, are available here. They reveal shifts due to changes in Atlas GNI per capita and classification thresholds. These thresholds are adjusted annually for inflation using the Special Drawing Rights (SDR) deflator. Often the thresholds go up with this adjustment, however occasionally, including this year, the thresholds have moved down slightly due to the appreciation of the U.S. dollar vs. other currencies.

The chart below shows the economies moving to new income categories this year:

Notable Country Movements

Costa Rica — moved from the “upper-middle income” to the “high income” category. The Costa Rican economy has seen consistently strong growth recently, with an average growth rate of 4.7% over the past three years. In 2023, Costa Rica’s Atlas GNI per capita was approaching the upper-middle income threshold. The 4.3% growth rate recorded in 2024, driven by strong domestic demand (private consumption and investment), was sufficient to push Costa Rica into the “high income” category this year.

Cabo Verde and Samoa both moved up from the “lower-middle income” to the “upper-middle income” category this year:

In 2024, Cabo Verde’s GDP grew 7.3%, a 2-point increase compared with 2023. This growth was driven mainly by tourism related industries (+ 16.5%), while GDP deflator slowed from 4.1% in 2023 to 1.7% in 2024. Notably, the UN Population Division revised population levels downwards (-12.8% for 2023), explaining the overall 16.8% increase observed in Atlas GNI per capita.
Samoa’s economy grew 9.4% in 2024, driven by a recovering tourism sector, ongoing reconstruction efforts, and strong remittances boosting consumption. Nominal GNI rose 14.8%. The population grew slightly (0.6%), while the exchange rate remained stable. Consequently, Samoa’s Atlas GNI per capita increased to $4,650, crossing into the upper-middle income threshold.

Namibia was the only country whose classification moved downward this year, from the “upper-middle income” to the “lower-middle income” category. In 2024, Namibia’s GDP grew 3.7%, a 0.7-point deceleration from 2023. Inflation (based on the GDP deflator) slowed from 6.6% in 2023 to 3.3% in 2024. One of the main factors behind the slower GDP growth was a sharp deceleration in mining and quarrying, for which growth went from +19.3% in 2023 to -1.2% in 2024 due to weak demand for diamonds. Population data was adjusted upwards by the United Nations Population Division (+13.8% for 2023), leading to a 12.9% decrease in the Atlas GNI per capita.

Recommendations for Policymakers

The World Bank Group’s income classifications provide valuable insights into global economic trends and development progress. As countries continue to evolve economically, these classifications will remain crucial for shaping development policies and strategies. Policymakers should consider these classifications when designing economic policies and strategies. Understanding the factors influencing income classification can guide efforts stimulating economic growth, help manage inflation, and enhance integration into the global economy.

More information

Detailed information on how the World Bank Group classifies countries is available here. The country and lending groups page provides a complete list of economies classified by income, region, and World Bank lending status and includes links to prior years’ classifications. The classification tables include World Bank member countries, along with all other economies with populations greater than 30,000. These classifications reflect the best available GNI figures for 2024, which may be revised as countries publish improved final estimates.

Data for GNI, GNI per capita, GDP, GDP PPP, and Population for 2024 are now available on the World Bank’s Open Data Catalog. Note that these are estimates and may be revised. For more information, please contact us at data@worldbank.org.

^{[1] The term country, used interchangeably with economy, does not imply political independence but refers to any territory for which authorities report separate social or economic statistics.}

^{[2] In countries where dual or multiple exchange rates are in use, the exchange rate used to convert local currency units to US$ is an average of these exchange rates, provided necessary data are available.}

^{[3] In previous publications, Afghanistan and Pakistan had been included in the South Asia group, they are now included in the Middle East & North Africa group and regional totals have been updated for the length of the time series.}

The authors are pleased to acknowledge the essential contributions of our colleagues, Charles Kouame, and Tamirat Yacob to the preparation of this piece.

Understanding spatial barriers to jobs and much more with GeoE3

Tue, 19 May 2026 00:00:00 +0000

Access to jobs is influenced by where people live and the conditions that surround them. Spatial factors such as infrastructure, safety, and exposure to natural hazards play an important role in shaping employment opportunities. Yet, these factors are often difficult to capture through traditional labor market analyses. Geospatial analysis helps address this gap. Policymakers and researchers can combine labor market data with geographic information to better understand spatial inequalities, identify location-specific constraints, and design more targeted employment interventions.

In this context, the World Bank Group has introduced GeoE3, the Geospatial Enabling Environments for Employment Spatial Tool, a QGIS plugin designed to strengthen the analysis of employment dynamics through a spatial lens. GeoE3 supports the World Bank Group’s Jobs Agenda, which focuses on improving employment outcomes and understanding the drivers of job creation, by offering a practical framework to explore how local conditions are associated with employment and business opportunities.

An important feature of GeoE3 is its capacity to incorporate a gender lens into spatial analysis. This is achieved through the integration of factors related to mobility of care, safety, and exposure to conflict and environmental-related risks, which are particularly relevant for women’s access to employment.

How does GeoE3 work?

GeoE3 structures its analysis around three dimensions: contextual, accessibility, and place characterization.

The contextual dimension focuses on the legal and institutional environment that shapes labor markets. A recent publication in the European Journal of Geography, based on a gender focused application of GeoE3 in Albania, Bulgaria, and Türkiye, found important differences across countries. In Türkiye, gaps were identified in laws related to equal pay, parental leave, and women’s ability to run businesses. In Albania, limitations were mainly observed in parental leave provisions. In contrast, Bulgaria had legal protections in place across all of these domain.

The accessibility dimension examines how easily people can reach essential services, using measures of travel time and distance. In Lubango, Angola, this dimension was used to complement a broader spatial vulnerability assessment. Pedestrian access to healthcare, education, public transport, financial services, and markets was analyzed as part of a broader assessment to identify bairros, or neighborhoods, with higher concentrations of low-income populations. Limited access to these services often signals areas where residents face greater constraints in meeting basic needs, which can act as barriers to securing and maintaining employment. This analysis was subsequently replicated in the Benguela-Lobito area, where reliable transit network data was not available, making this type of analysis difficult to apply. Instead, the assessment used proximity to essential services as a practical alternative. Although less technically detailed, this approach still provides a useful indication of how easily residents can access key services and is therefore suitable for the vulnerability assessment.¹

The place-characterization dimension focuses on the physical and functional attributes of locations. This includes elements such as active transport infrastructure, access to water and sanitation, digital connectivity, and exposure to risks related to fragility, conflict, and violence. In Burkina Faso, GeoE3 was used to examine spatial barriers affecting women’s participation in the informal sector. The analysis highlighted how conflict, limited access to electricity, and weak infrastructure outside major urban centers constrain women’s access to economic opportunities. Limited digital connectivity further restricts access to information and markets, reinforcing these challenges across both formal and informal sectors.

What does GeoE3 reveal about access to jobs?

GeoE3 moves beyond describing labor market outcomes and helps identify the underlying conditions influencing who can access opportunities and where constraints are most severe. Policymakers and practitioners can use these insights to design more targeted and place-sensitive employment interventions.

In doing so, GeoE3 directly supports the first pillar of the World Bank Jobs Agenda by strengthening the evidence base needed to design more targeted, place-sensitive employment policies. If you would like to learn more about how geography shapes access to jobs, particularly for women, we invite you to take the online course Geographic Considerations of Women’s Employment Opportunities, launching on June 16.

^{[1] The Angola application was developed in collaboration between the Geospatial and Transport teams, as part of ongoing transport work led by Karla Dominguez Gonzalez, Ana Luiza Machado, and Juan Miguel Velazquez. The spatial vulnerability assessment represents the first phase of a broader research agenda on gender and accessibility from a transport perspective, aimed at identifying vulnerable areas for targeted qualitative data collection.}

Fertilizer prices surge as Strait of Hormuz disruptions tighten supplies

John Baffes, Kaltrina Temaj — Thu, 14 May 2026 00:00:00 +0000

This blog post is part of a special series based on the April 2026 Commodity Markets Outlook, a flagship report published by the World Bank Group. This series features concise summaries of commodity-specific sections extracted from the report.

The World Bank Group’s fertilizer price index rose more than 12 percent in 2026Q1 (q/q), marking its sixth increase in seven quarters. By April 2026, the index had reached its highest level since October 2022, driven mainly by export disruptions related to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Urea prices recorded the largest gains, while increases in other fertilizers were more moderate. Despite the recent surge, price increases remain well below the spikes seen in 2021 and 2022, when fertilizer prices jumped by more than 100 percent and 55 percent, respectively, amid supply disruptions in Russia and Belarus—two of the world’s key fertilizer suppliers. The more subdued response this time reflects three factors: (i) growers in the Northern Hemisphere had already secured much of their fertilizer supply; (ii) natural gas prices (the main production cost for nitrogen-based fertilizers) rose less sharply than after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine; and (iii) trade flows from the Middle East are increasingly being rerouted through land corridors, bypassing the Strait of Hormuz. The fertilizer price index is projected to rise by more than 30 percent in 2026, supported by higher input costs—particularly for nitrogen- and phosphate-based fertilizers—and resilient global demand. Prices are expected to ease in 2027 as exports recover and new supply comes online. However, risks remain tilted to the upside if elevated energy prices persist and shipping and production disruptions linked to the Strait of Hormuz continue beyond 2026Q3.

Nitrogen (urea) prices climbed above $850 per metric ton in April, up 80 percent since February and the highest level since April 2022. The surge was driven by major export disruptions following the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a key shipping route for fertilizer exports from the Middle East, which accounts for nearly one-quarter of global urea exports. Supply pressures have intensified due to production outages across the region. The Islamic Republic of Iran halted ammonia production amid the conflict, while Qatar suspended production of urea, ammonia, and sulfur after damage to key facilities. India has also reduced urea and ammonia output because of lower LNG supplies. Tighter supply and potential export curbs from China have added to market concerns, pushing fertilizer affordability for farmers to its weakest level since mid-2022.

Urea prices are projected to rise nearly 60 percent in 2026 before easing in 2027 as Middle East exports recover and natural gas prices moderate. However, risks remain tilted upward, including prolonged shipping disruptions from the Middle East, further trade restrictions, and higher input costs—especially natural gas prices—all of which could push urea prices above their 2022 average.

DAP (diammonium phosphate) prices rose more than 10 percent in April after remaining relatively stable earlier in the year. The increase reflects tightening supply conditions and rising input costs, particularly sulfur prices, which have doubled since January. China’s move to tighten exports has also added upward pressure on prices. As a result, the DAP-to-food price ratio—which had declined for six straight months through February—rebounded in March and April.

DAP prices are projected to rise nearly 6 percent in 2026 before falling about 10 percent in 2027 as new production capacity comes online. However, major risks remain. Renewed export restrictions by China or a prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz could significantly disrupt global fertilizer trade, especially since the route handles a large share of global sulfur and ammonia shipments—both critical inputs for DAP production. Supply concerns have also intensified after Morocco’s OCP accelerated maintenance at its phosphate facilities, likely in response to disruptions in sulfur and ammonia markets.

MOP (muriate of potash) prices rose more than 5 percent in 2026Q1 and were nearly 17 percent higher than a year earlier. Despite the increase, affordability relative to food prices has remained close to pre-2020 levels. The market is becoming increasingly well supplied, supported by higher exports from Belarus following the easing of U.S. sanctions, as well as stronger shipments from Russia, Canada, and the Lao People’s Democratic Republic. Supply conditions are expected to remain comfortable through 2026 and 2027.

MOP prices are forecast to rise about 12 percent in 2026 before easing 6 percent in 2027. The broader outlook remains balanced, as potash markets are less exposed to Middle East disruptions than other fertilizers. Still, sharper-than-expected increases in urea or phosphate prices could prompt farmers to cut MOP use to manage costs, weakening demand and exerting downward pressure on prices. In the longer term, major new production capacity—especially in Canada, the world’s largest potash producer and exporter—could add further downward pressure.

How should countries set realistic and ambitious development targets?

Thu, 14 May 2026 00:00:00 +0000

It is now widely acknowledged that the world will not meet the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) by 2030. The UN’s own assessment finds that only a third of SDG targets are on track or making moderate progress, while nearly half are moving too slowly and a fifth are reversing.

This shortfall partly reflects the world’s slow pace of development since the SDGs were set, a trend exacerbated by global crises such as the COVID-19 pandemic, climate change, and geopolitical instability. But it is also a reflection of the SDG targets themselves, some of which were deliberately set as highly aspirational. Even with fast progress, they would have been nearly impossible to achieve by 2030. Goals like ending poverty or achieving universal access to clean water are nearly impossible to achieve in less than a generation because many countries are more than a hundred years away from these goals at a normal pace of development.

Ideal targets are feasible yet ambitious. They move the agenda forward by motivating policymakers, mobilizing resources, and inspiring innovation. There’s a fascinating parallel in sports: marathon runners often “bunch” their finishing times just below the hour or half-hour mark, suggesting that the target itself shapes performance. The same dynamic plays out at the country level. For example, when India set a national target to eliminate open defecation, the ambitious goal galvanized a massive public campaign, mobilized funding, and led to dramatic improvements in sanitation coverage.

With many SDG targets out of reach, countries face a critical question: how should they set development targets that are both relevant and aspirational? In a new paper, we propose a fresh approach to target-setting. Our method works by modeling the typical path of development for an indicator, calculating how long it usually takes to move between any two development stages based on past experiences around the world. An interactive visual explanation of the method is available here.

To see how it works in practice, suppose that Nepal wants to set a target for its under-five mortality rate in 2050.

This approach allows for target-setting across countries based on how fast a country is moving relative to the typical pace across countries, its own historical pace, or the pace of a benchmark country, such as the best performer in its region.

It also allows for the creation of global targets that are informed by country targets. One possible global target is the global projected value if all countries follow the historical pace of progress. Yet in many situations, historical development paths are unlikely to be appropriate; technological change may make expected future progress faster while climate change or geopolitical uncertainties may make it slower. If the typical historical path is not sufficiently ambitious, one could explore a global target that mimics the path of a historical best performer, such as the under-five mortality in India.

Ultimately, target-setting is a complex and multifaceted process. While this framework, like any framework, cannot deliver a universal solution, we hope it can equip users with the tools and information to establish both realistic and ambitious targets.

Care about another country or another development indicator? We have created a package in R, trackr, that allows you to create development targets at various levels of ambition using your data of interest. Reproducible code for the Nepalese example is available here.

Liberia's private sector in focus: What the data reveal

Jones Arkoh Paintsil, Yew Chong Soh, Rose Mungai — Tue, 12 May 2026 00:00:00 +0000

Like many lower-income economies, Liberia's economy remains heavily dependent on agriculture, which accounted for around 33.8% of GDP in 2024 and continues to be the primary source of livelihood for most households.

Employment, on the other hand, is overwhelmingly informal, with about 87% of workers engaged in smallholder farming or unregistered micro-enterprises. This is especially stark for young people: approximately 14.8% of Liberians aged 15–24 are neither in education, employment, nor training (NEET), a figure that, given the scale of informality, almost certainly understates the depth of youth underemployment in the formal sector and the urgency of creating productive jobs.

While agriculture will remain a cornerstone of the economy, prospects for sustained and inclusive growth hinge on the expansion of a more productive non-agricultural private sector. Identifying and addressing the constraints that limit firm growth is therefore central to effective economic policy to expand the non-agricultural private sector and create more productive jobs.

This blog draws on Liberia's 2025 World Bank Enterprise Survey (WBES), comparing it against 2017 to trace how conditions have evolved over eight years. Let’s dive into it.

Declining productivity and employment growth

The most concerning finding is the significant decline in firm productivity and business dynamism. Real annual sales growth dropped sharply from 27.3% in 2017 to 7.9% in 2025 (Figure 1a), bringing Liberia closer to the West Africa average of 7.0% but suggesting a significant loss of momentum. Average annual employment growth shows a similar pattern, declining from 19.8% in 2017 to 8.9% in 2025 (Figure 1b) — now comparable to the regional average but well below the pace needed to absorb a fast-growing workforce.

Figure 1. Real Annual Sales and Employment Growth

With 63% of Liberia's population under the age of 25, the slowdown in employment generation is particularly concerning. The data point to a private sector that experienced robust expansion in 2017 but now confronts mounting constraints on growth and job creation.

Shifting business obstacles

Business obstacles facing Liberian firms have changed significantly since 2017 (Figure 2). Access to finance became the leading constraint, rising from 29.9% to 39.8% of firms citing it as their biggest obstacle in 2025. Many SMEs face tight borrowing conditions — driven by high collateral requirements, limited credit histories, and high interest rates while the microfinance institutions remain too small to close the gap. These constraints become particularly binding on firms looking for innovation, equipment upgrades, or expansion.

Figure 2. Business Obstacles

Electricity remains a persistent challenge, cited by 21.6% of firms in 2025 compared to 22.5% in 2017. Despite the marginal improvement, unreliable power supply continues to force businesses to rely on costly backup generators, raising operational costs and disrupting production. Indeed, between 2017 and 2025 the percentage of firms owning a generator went from 73% to 91% while utilization rates remained broadly unchanged. This pattern indicates a substantial increase in firms’ dependence on self-generation. Such widespread reliance on generators serves as a clear signal of weak grid reliability; when firms systematically invest in and depend on alternative power sources, it reflects a lack of confidence in the consistency and adequacy of public electricity provision. For manufacturing firms in particular, inconsistent electricity supply constrains growth. Transport bottlenecks and competition from informal-sector firms further compound these challenges placing registered businesses at a disadvantage due to regulatory and tax compliance costs.

Together, these findings highlight a set of interconnected obstacles requiring the need for comprehensive reforms in financial sector development, infrastructure investment, and regulatory frameworks.

Decreasing innovation activity

The share of firms introducing new products or services fell from 53.5% in 2017 to 13.1% in 2025 (Figure 3a), showing a 76% decline and well below the West Africa average of 18.7%. Process innovation followed the same trajectory, declining from 30.8% to 14.2% (Figure 3b). This sharp decline likely reflects tightening financial constraints, as innovation requires upfront investment in R&D, new equipment, and market development — investments that depend heavily on access to finance.

Figure 3. Innovation Activity

The result is a troubling negative cycle. Without access to capital, firms cannot innovate; without productivity gains, they cannot self-finance or qualify for credit. Breaking this cycle is essential to restoring dynamism to Liberia's private sector.

Policy implications and the path forward

Together, these findings have significant implications for development policy in Liberia and West Africa — particularly for private-sector growth, economic diversification, and job creation — and are highly relevant to advancing the government's ARREST Agenda for Inclusive Development (AAID).

Access to finance remains the most pressing barrier, despite improvements in political stability and governance. Expanding financial inclusion alongside regulatory reforms would help ease this constraint. At the same time, sustained investment in electricity infrastructure is critical, as high energy costs continue to limit firm capacity. Firms also need stronger innovation support and clearer pathways to formalization that do not impose excessive regulatory burdens.

This analysis directly informs the World Bank Group's broader jobs agenda, which seeks to help developing countries translate growth into more and better-quality local jobs. With 1.2 billion young people set to enter the global workforce over the next decade, accelerating firm growth and expanding access to finance in countries like Liberia will be critical to turning economic potential into real opportunities for workers on the ground.

With more than 4.02 million acres of arable land, a strategic location in West Africa, and a young, growing population, Liberia is well positioned for growth. The right policy framework and targeted private-sector support, can help reverse the decline in productivity and innovation, unlocking sustainable, inclusive growth and more — and better — jobs for all Liberians.

From satellite data to development finance: how Earth observation is scaling impact across World Bank operations

Fri, 08 May 2026 00:00:00 +0000

“Data collected for one purpose have the potential to generate economic and social value in applications far beyond those originally anticipated.”

This idea, highlighted in the World Development Report 2021: Data for Better Lives, is increasingly shaping how development institutions think about data. Unlocking that value requires more than availability — it requires systems that enable reuse, integration, and equitable access to the benefits data can generate.

Geospatial and Earth observation (EO) data are a clear example of this shift. Originally developed for weather forecasting and environmental monitoring, they are now being applied to core development challenges — from climate risk to infrastructure planning. Their ability to provide consistent, high-frequency, and spatially detailed insights makes them a powerful complement to surveys and administrative data.

From data to operations: how the World Bank is scaling EO use

The World Bank’s Development Data Group is advancing the use of geospatial and EO data through a combination of financing, public goods, and operational support.

Financing: The Global Data Facility supports the full data value chain — from traditional surveys to satellite-based insights — helping scale data-driven development.
Public goods: Space2Stats produces standardized geospatial datasets at administrative levels and on global grids, improving comparability across countries and over time.
Operational integration: The Geospatial Operations Support Team helps embed geospatial data into project design and implementation, ensuring that data translate into actionable evidence.

Together, these efforts are moving EO data from niche applications to routine use in development operations.

A partnership built for scale: European Space Agency and the World Bank

Over the past 15 years, the World Bank has partnered with the European Space Agency (ESA) to expand the use of EO data in development. This collaboration has been boosted by the advent of the European Copernicus Programme, which provides free and open access to satellite data from its fleet of Sentinels backed by sustained public investment with a long-term planning horizon.

Through ESA’s Global Development Assistance programme, this partnership focuses on addressing demand from Bank teams and client country stakeholders by converting raw satellite data into decision-ready products tailored to real-world needs. Since 2020, more than 87 World Bank projects across around 70 countries — from Colombia to Cambodia — have benefited.

Across these projects, about 80 distinct EO capabilities have been applied, including land use mapping, flood monitoring, vegetation analysis, and coastal ecosystem tracking. Rather than acting as stand-alone tools, these capabilities are integrated into project workflows and aligned with development priorities.

Figure 1. GDA Impact Dashboard highlighting activities with World Bank and International Finance Corporation (IFC)

Standardizing methods to scale impact

One of the clearest lessons from this portfolio is that EO applications rely on recurring analytical patterns. Whether assessing drought, flood risk, or land use change, similar combinations of data layers are used to analyze climate risk, resource variability, and infrastructure vulnerability.

This repetition matters.

It suggests that EO methodologies can be standardized and reused across sectors—from agriculture and energy to urban development and water management. Treating these approaches as shared analytical building blocks, rather than sector-specific tools, opens the door to scale.

The benefits are practical:

Reduced duplication across projects
Greater consistency in analysis
Improved comparability across countries
More efficient investment design and risk screening

In a context where development institutions are expected to do more with limited resources, standardized EO approaches help scale impact without compromising quality.

Figure 2. Diverse use of flood-related (left) and agriculture-related (right) EO capabilities across World Bank Development Topics

From pilots to operations: what this looks like in practice

Across World Bank operations, EO applications are already moving beyond pilots — informing investments, strengthening systems, and supporting decision-making.

Paraguay (agriculture): EO-based pasture monitoring was tested within an existing project and later informed a new lending component. Farmers gained access to better vegetation data, supporting improved grazing and resource management.
Pakistan and the Philippines (statistics systems): EO-based indicators were integrated into crop reporting through ESA’s Sen4Stat platform. Starting with pilots and scaling to full implementation, this approach improved the timeliness and consistency of agricultural statistics.
South Sudan (climate resilience): EO data were used to assess flood risks and guide investment design in a data-scarce environment. The work also supported the development of a national water information system and capacity building for government agencies.
Bangladesh and Uganda (energy systems): EO-based risk analysis helped assess infrastructure exposure to floods, landslides, and extreme weather. This enabled more targeted, climate-resilient investments and demonstrated how methodologies can be transferred across countries.

These examples show how EO data move along different pathways — from analysis to investment, pilot to institutionalization, or analytics to operations — depending on the context.

Driving investment and supporting development priorities

These applications are closely aligned with major World Bank priorities, including agricultural transformation, expanded electricity access, and climate resilience.

They are also delivering measurable results.

To date, EO-supported activities have informed approximately $6 billion in development finance, particularly in energy, transport, environment, and agriculture. An additional $16 million has been mobilized for scaling, replication, and capacity building.

This demonstrates how data — when effectively integrated — can directly influence investment decisions and development outcomes. But the use of EO data across the World Bank is no longer experimental. It is becoming part of how operations are designed and implemented.

This shift reflects growing awareness, stronger partnerships, and more mature tools and methodologies facilitating operational adoption at scale. EO data are increasingly embedded across Global Departments, supporting routine analysis rather than isolated pilot projects.

Figure 3. From satellite data to development finance: ESA GDA and the World Bank

Looking ahead: scaling through partnership and public goods

The World Bank–ESA partnership continues to play a central role in this transition. It combines complementary strengths: the World Bank’s financing and country engagement with ESA’s technical expertise and access to Europe’s EO ecosystem.

Looking forward, this collaboration is evolving under ESA’s new Earth Action program, which spans the full EO value chain — from research to operational services. This approach supports:

Continued technical assistance
Development of reusable EO public goods
Capacity building and skills transfer

The goal is clear: to move EO from promising innovation to fully embedded, repeatable, and scalable practice.

When that happens, satellite data are no longer just an additional input — they become a core part of how impact is catalyzed and development decisions are made.

Strait of Hormuz disruption sends oil prices surging

Paolo Agnolucci, Nikita Makarenko, Kaltrina Temaj — Thu, 07 May 2026 00:00:00 +0000

This blog post is part of a special series based on the April 2026 Commodity Markets Outlook, a flagship report published by the World Bank. This series features concise summaries of commodity-specific sections extracted from the report.

Oil prices surged sharply after the outbreak of conflict in the Middle East and the near-total disruption of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. By the end of March, the Brent price had increased by about 65 percent ($46/bbl) to record its highest monthly rise ever, amid pronounced volatility. Prices eased somewhat in early April after the announcement of a temporary ceasefire. Since then, the movement of oil prices have reflected uncertainty about the outcome of negotiations between the Islamic Republic of Iran and United States to end the conflict and restore regional oil flows. This uncertainty has persisted amid a blockade of vessels entering or leaving Iranian ports and coastal areas.

The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has led to the largest oil market disruption in history. Global oil supply crashed by 10.1 mb/d in March, due to attacks on energy infrastructure and restrictions on tanker traffic in the Middle East. Global oil output is expected to fall by 6.9 mb/d (6.6 percent) year-on-year in 2026Q2, recording its largest quarterly decline since the COVID-19 pandemic. Supply reductions are anticipated to be concentrated among producers exporting through the Strait of Hormuz, while production growth elsewhere is expected to remain limited. The United States is projected to account for most non-OPEC+ supply growth, with output increasing by about 0.5 mb/d, partly offsetting disruptions in the region.

Oil demand destruction is emerging. Global oil consumption is estimated to have fallen by 0.8 mb/d year-on-year in March due to increased disruptions in the Middle East and a consequent rise in oil prices. Demand is forecast to fall by another 1.5 mb/d in 2026Q2, with advanced economies, Asia, and the Middle East seeing reduced demand from trade disruptions and price hikes. Demand growth in 2026 is expected to remain concentrated in major emerging markets, particularly Brazil, India, and Indonesia, supported mainly by transport fuels and petrochemicals.

A global oil shortage is impacting the market. The oil market is projected to face a 3.7 mb/d deficit in 2026Q2 due to reduced production from the Middle East. Emergency reserves and limited output increases have partly alleviated shortages, but global inventories dropped sharply in March. Even if disruptions ease later this year, oil markets are expected to stay tight in the near future amid ongoing geopolitical risks, uncertain regional flows, and dislocation of shipping assets.

Oil price risks remain largely upward. Oil prices are expected to remain high, with Brent averaging $86/bbl in 2026 before dropping to $70/bbl in 2027 as supply stabilizes. This forecast assumes that the most acute phase of supply disruptions related to the conflict in the Middle East ends in May and that oil exports from the Middle East will recover and stabilize around pre-war levels by the final quarter of the year. The main upside risks are re-escalating hostilities in the Middle East or lasting impediments to regional oil flows due to new constraints on exports through pipelines and more extensive damage to regional production and export capabilities. Additional risks include unanticipated logistical or operational hurdles in reversing shut-ins or resuming shipping. Under these circumstances, the average Brent oil price in 2026 could fall in a range from $95/bbl to $115/bbl, about 10 to 35 percent higher than the baseline. On the downside, prices may drop below the baseline if supply rebounds faster than expected, supported by stronger U.S. production growth, higher OPEC+ output, or faster normalization of shipping flows. Faster-than-expected electric vehicle adoption and weaker global economic growth could also place downward pressure on prices.